One last question from me. I talk a lot about my 3-5x the payout multiple for testing. I know based on things you've said that your multiple is higher. What is your strategy for deciding on a testing budget for a new campaign? When do you pause and move on?
It depends on the traffic source completely.
3-5x maybe enough to test something like FB ads or a source where you can't really optimize much by filtering and segmenting OS, websites, sources, browsers, etc.
Native for example considering you buy traffic in thousands of sites as well as pops has much more things to test and analyze and 3-5x will barely scratch the surface. So I like my budget there to be a minimum of 20x but sometimes up to 100-200x the payout of the offer.
Many times for example, if you spend 5x the offer payout there's a website/target/siteID that will consume 70% of that traffic initially, so in reality you only spent 30% of your budget in the rest of the websites (so more like 1.5x of the offer only?) and you can't decide if a campaign works or not without any statistical significance like that.
Besides, there's also the landers factor in which you want them to spend a similar significant amount per website, so if you start with 3 landing pages and your budget was 10x payout initially now with 3 landers you need to increase that to 30x or you'll only gather 1/3 of the data you thought you were going to gather. I usually start with 3 landers and 2-3 offers so that means I need to increase my budget by 6x-9x of what I was going to test if I were to use only 1 offer and 1 lander (I never direct link though but if you direct link this is another path to test as well).